Scottie's Week Three 2025 Power Rankings

Don't Call It a Comeback

...and we're back. After taking a few years off from writing power rankings, I've returned with a rejuvenated hatred for all your teams. I won't do these every week (given my busy schedule as a full-time employee and part-time grad student), but I will do my best to periodically carve out time to explain why you're bad at fantasy football.

When I last wrote about fantasy football a year ago, I tried to quantify who the luckiest person in the league is. Since then, I suffered yet another defeat in the championship. We can agree that I'm the unluckiest. In that post, I introduced two metrics that I'll include in my power rankings: $w_o$ and $Δw$. A quick recap of those.

$$w_o = ∑_{p ∈ P(r)} I(p < r.points)$$

Where:

• $P(r)$ is the set of points from all other players in the same year and week as $r$, defined as ${p | (p.wy = r.wy) ∧ (p.u ≠ r.u)}$ where $wy$ represents week and year and $u$ represents username
• $I(condition)$ is the indicator function defined as ${ 1 \text{ if true } 0 \text{ if false } }$
• $r.points$ represents the points from the input row

Below is a code snippet to calculate $w_o$ in Python using a DataFrame object that can be used with the data lake mentioned below:

enrich_dataframe.py

def calculate_weekly_wins_against_all_opponents(row):
    other_player_points = list(matchups.loc[matchups['year'] == row['year']] \
        .loc[matchups['week'] == row['week']] \
        .loc[matchups['username'] != row['username']]['points'])
    wins_against_all_opponents = 0.0
    for other_player_point in other_player_points:
        if other_player_point < row['points']:
            wins_against_all_opponents += 1
    return wins_against_all_opponents
    
# assumes that matchups have been loaded from S3    
# more connection details below
matchups['wins_against_all_opponents'] = matchups.apply(calculate_weekly_wins_against_all_opponents, axis=1)

Simply put, $w_o$ is the number of teams that your weekly score would have defeated, with the range being ${x ∈ ℤ : 0 ≤ x ≤ 11}$. $0$ indicates that a team had the worst score of the week, and $11$ indicates that a team had the best score of the week.

As the season progresses, we can identify anomalous win/loss ratios (i.e., luck) by comparing the actual wins to the number of teams the player would have beaten. Using the following formula, we can convert these deltas to a percentage above or below actual wins (as $Δw$ with $w_a$ as actual wins and $w_o$ as wins over all opponents based on $t$ possible wins and $11t$ possible wins over all opponents):

$$Δw = (w_a / t) - (w_o / (11t))$$

Given that this is week three, $t = 3$. Negative values indicate unluckiness, and positive values indicate luckiness. Let's review these metrics so far.

Team	Week Three $w_o$	Season Total $w_o$	$Δw$
Travis	10	28	15%
Scottie	11	26	-12%
Callen	9	25	24%
Carl	6	23	-3%
Mark	5	23	30%
Andrew	3	13	-6%
Trond	0	13	-6%
Chris	8	13	-6%
Matt	7	11	0%
Caleb	4	10	-30%
Logan	2	7	-21%
John	1	6	15%

Notice any usual suspects? I'll save that part for the power rankings.

League Data Lake Production Release

For any nerds that want to do some data exploration, I've deployed the data lake to our production league AWS account. Assuming that you have Python installed, the following Bash script will prepare your environment:

python3 -m venv '.venv'
. .venv/bin/activate
pip install pandas pyarrow s3fs

I need to configure your access in our league SSO Identity Store, then you can get started with pandas like so:

matchups.py

import pandas as pd

matchups = pd.read_parquet(
    's3://datalakestack-datalakebucket0256ea8e-2vsnkn8mkieo/sleeper/matchups/',
    engine='pyarrow',
    # example filter
    # filters=[('year', '==', 2025)])

Below are the currently supported columns, but please feel free to suggest others:

columns.py

Index(['co_owners', 'keepers', 'league_id', 'owner_id', 'player_map',
       'players_x', 'reserve', 'roster_id', 'starters_x', 'taxi', 'points',
       'players_y', 'custom_points', 'matchup_id', 'starters_y',
       'starters_points', 'players_points', 'week', 'year', 'type'],
      dtype='object')

Now, on to this week's power rankings.

Brian Thomas Gooners | 3-0W/L | 339PF

Week Three Points: 115.26

Callen's team is stacked from top to bottom, has incredible depth, and will likely improve as the season advances (i.e., the Jordan Addison suspension). The only glaring weakness in his draft was at QB, but he has since filled that position with a top-6 QB in Justin Herbert. All of his bench players put up at least 15 points this week. Oh yeah, and his rookie pick (Tetairoa McMillan) is legit too. This team is a juggernaut, and the only problem that Callen has right now is choosing who to start. In the words of Tim Brewster, "BALLERS EVERYWHERE!" I'm glad that this team will make the playoffs, because the Aggies and Texans sure as hell won't (and the Astros are trending in that direction too). With just the right luck so far (i.e., a $Δw$ of 24%) and this roster, Callen has to take the number one spot.

Name	Team	Depth
Justin Herbert	LAC-QB	1
James Cook	BUF-RB	1
Alvin Kamara	NO-RB	1
Tetairoa McMillan	CAR-WR	1
Brian Thomas	JAX-WR	1
T.J. Hockenson	MIN-TE	1
Malik Nabers	NYG-WR	1
David Montgomery	DET-RB	2
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	TB-DEF

MeHurts&theGibbyGibbys | 3-0W/L | 359PF

Week Three Points: 122.32

With a league high $w_o$ of 28, Tarv has to be the next team. Jalen Hurts continues his fantasy dominance with at least one rushing TD in each of the first three weeks. Any concerns about Saquon vulturing goalline TDs have long since been moot. Jahmyr Gibbs continues to play like a league-winning RB, and Javonte Williams hoards the rushing touches for the Cowboys. George Pickens and Rome Odunze are forming a strong WR corps for Tarv, but the injury to Mike Evans will test this roster's depth. Trey McBride has been 10 points guaranteed, which is fantastic in the TE slot. That said, I think Tarv will need some wavier wire magic to stay near the top. Another injury or Williams/Pickens falling back to earth could quickly send this team to the middle of the pack. Much like A&M's ref-assisted win over a massively overrated Notre Dame, this team might be fool's gold (pun intended).

Name	Team	Depth
Jalen Hurts	PHI-QB	1
Jahmyr Gibbs	DET-RB	1
Chase Brown	CIN-RB	1
Mike Evans	TB-WR	7 (O)
Rome Odunze	CHI-WR	1
Trey McBride	ARI-TE	1
George Pickens	DAL-WR	1
Javonte Williams	DAL-RB	1
Buffalo Bills	BUF-DEF

ZOOT SCOOT BOOGIE | 2-1W/L | 353PF

Week Three Points: 127.85

Look at that! I've had negative luck, but I'm still in second place by $w_o$. Shout out to the Minnesota D/ST for making me $20 this week for the highest score. As a lifelong USC fan since June, I've always believed in Caleb Williams. He's looking like a top-5 fantasy QB. Bijan Robinson and Ken Walker are forming a strong RB corps, but I'm feeling thin with the season-ending injury to James Conner. I've been able to get to a great start, even with Justin Jefferson yet to have an extraordinary game. My bench looks like an ICU at the moment, but the Quentin Johnston acquisition is looking like a textbook Waiver Wire God move. This roster cannot handle another injury until Aiyuk and/or Jennings get healthy.

Name	Team	Depth
Caleb Williams	CHI-QB	1
Bijan Robinson	ATL-RB	1
Kenneth Walker	SEA-RB	1
Justin Jefferson	MIN-WR	1
Zay Flowers	BAL-WR	1
Sam LaPorta	DET-TE	1
James Conner	ARI-RB	5 (I)
Quentin Johnston	LAC-WR	3
Minnesota Vikings	MIN-DEF

Uncle Cral's Little Dogs | 2-1W/L | 346PF

Week Three Points: 103.2

Carl's team looks strange but good (as per usual). McCaffrey and Dobbins are a damn good RB duo, but those two have historically struggled to stay healthy. I'm not sold that Mariota is going to put up similar numbers to Jayden Daniels every week (that is, if Carl doesn't stream QBs), and I doubt that the Commanders are going to rush him back to play. Ja'Marr Chase has had two stinkers (including the first game with Burrow out), so I'm not optimistic about his fantasy value at the moment, given the uncertainty at QB with Burrow out for the foreseeable future. That said, Emeka Egbuka might be the best pick of the draft. TE and flex look to be consistent for Carl, so I expect this team to be a contender. I should have traded you James Conner at the draft.

Name	Team	Depth
Marcus Mariota	WAS-QB	2
Christian McCaffrey	SF-RB	1
J.K. Dobbins	DEN-RB	1
Ja'Marr Chase	CIN-WR	1
Emeka Egbuka	TB-WR	1
Juwan Johnson	NO-TE	1
D'Andre Swift	CHI-RB	1
Tony Pollard	TEN-RB	1
Atlanta Falcons	ATL-DEF

Sour Diesel Enjoyer | 3-0W/L | 336PF

Week Three Points: 99.04

Mark is already pacing to have as much luck as his 2023 championship season. After a narrow four-point victory against me in week two, followed by a sub-100-point victory against Logz, we might have to accept that Mark is going to win it all. The Josh Allen pick is looking galaxy-brain right now. I'm not inspired by his r'*Chub*' RB room or his twelve other RBs that he has stashed on his bench. However, Puka/Amon-Ra/Ridley/Deebo is a lethal WR combo. History says that Mark is likely to win several close games and secure a comfortable playoff spot. I see nothing that changes my mind here.

Name	Team	Depth
Josh Allen	BUF-QB	1
Chuba Hubbard	CAR-RB	1
Nick Chubb	HOU-RB	1
Puka Nacua	LAR-WR	1
Amon-Ra St. Brown	DET-WR	1
Tucker Kraft	GB-TE	1
Calvin Ridley	TEN-WR	1
Deebo Samuel	WAS-WR	2
Pittsburgh Steelers	PIT-DEF

Mayfield Advantage | 1-2W/L | 301PF

Week Three Points: 91.7

Carlough's team feels like the perfect midpoint for the league. This roster hasn't performed at the level of the top teams, but it's a clear step up from the basement dwellers below. Baker Mayfield has been a reliable 20-point source to serve as a quality scoring base. De'Von Achane and Jonathan Taylor have shown consistency and the explosive potential to catapult this team to the top of the standings. Carlough's WR corps and flex spots haven't inspired much confidence so far, and the injury to Brittle Kittle hurts too. That said, I think Chris Godwin's return could push this team into the playoffs.

Name	Team	Depth
Baker Mayfield	TB-QB	1
De'Von Achane	MIA-RB	1
Jonathan Taylor	IND-RB	1
Wan'Dale Robinson	NYG-WR	2
Tee Higgins	CIN-WR	2
Harold Fannin	CLE-TE	2
Hollywood Brown	KC-WR	2
Jakobi Meyers	LV-WR	1
Philadelphia Eagles	PHI-DEF

Disney hater bville mayor | 1-2W/L | 277PF

Week Three Points: 75.83

After a strong week one showing, Trond's roster has performed progressively worse each week. Saquon Barkley's disappointing week contributed to a 75.83-point stinker. Marvin Harrison and Breece Hall have also been uninspiring so far. The rest of the roster looks good, not great. Michael Pittman and one explosive performance from Jared Goff have been bright spots, but this team is aggressively mediocre. That's a step up for Trondheim!

Name	Team	Depth
Jared Goff	DET-QB	1
Saquon Barkley	PHI-RB	1
Breece Hall	NYJ-RB	1
Michael Pittman	IND-WR	1
Marvin Harrison	ARI-WR	1
Brock Bowers	LV-TE	1
Jameson Williams	DET-WR	2
Jalen Nailor	MIN-WR	3
San Francisco 49ers	SF-DEF

Moore Lamb Plz | 0-3W/L | 272PF

Week Three Points: 95

I really feel for Caleb. With a $Δw$ of -30%, he remains the unluckiest person in our league once again. In addition to the bad luck in matchups, CeeDee Lamb will miss three to four weeks. Despite this, I'm actually high on this roster outside a terrible homer pick in Bo Nix. Jaxon Smith-Njigba looks special this season, and he has a solid RB1 and RB2 combo. Despite a painful start, I believe that this team will regress to the mean.

Name	Team	Depth
Bo Nix	DEN-QB	1
Kyren Williams	LAR-RB	1
Jaylen Warren	PIT-RB	1
CeeDee Lamb	DAL-WR	2 (O)
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	SEA-WR	1
Jake Ferguson	DAL-TE	1
TreVeyon Henderson	NE-RB	2
DJ Moore	CHI-WR	2
Green Bay Packers	GB-DEF

Rashee Ya Later Alligator | 1-2W/L | 270PF

Week Three Points: 106.59

Sports leads us nowhere but to pain and despair.

Cramsey got a much-needed first win this week. After a tough start to K-State's football season, I fear that a loss this week might have broken him psychologically. Lamar Jackson has been a pillar of stability for this roster as the number one QB. Josh Jacobs has been reasonably reliable, but this team is currently lacking explosiveness. Outside of a Courtland Sutton 21.8-point game, this team has demonstrated little boom potential. As such, I expect that this team will hover around 90-100 points per week.

Name	Team	Depth
Lamar Jackson	BAL-QB	1
Josh Jacobs	GB-RB	1
Rachaad White	TB-RB	2
Calvin Austin	PIT-WR	2
Terry McLaurin	WAS-WR	1 (Q)
David Njoku	CLE-TE	1
Ladd McConkey	LAC-WR	1
Courtland Sutton	DEN-WR	1
Seattle Seahawks	SEA-DEF

TUlsa King | 1-2W/L | 264PF

Week Three Points: 103.48

With 0% luck, it's safe to say that this is just what K-Man's team is. This roster isn't terrible, but it's a tough break when your first-round pick averages 6.9 PPG. I'm not sure Ashton Jeanty is poised for a breakout season with the Raiders either. Perhaps Boise State and all teams outside the Power Two conferences don't prepare players for the NFL in the same way. Personally, I think this team's success will hinge on Omarion Hampton, Garrett Wilson, and a couple of good waiver pickups.

Name	Team	Depth
Daniel Jones	IND-QB	1
Omarion Hampton	LAC-RB	1
Bucky Irving	TB-RB	1
Garrett Wilson	NYJ-WR	1
Chris Olave	NO-WR	1
Tyler Warren	IND-TE	1
Dylan Sampson	CLE-RB	3
Ashton Jeanty	LV-RB	1
Indianapolis Colts	IND-DEF

This Team Is The Pitts | 0-3W/L | 257PF

Week Three Points: 89.96

Logz makes the playoff (no: Scottie; yes: K-Man); one shot wager

Remember this pinned bet from the draft? It's burned into my memory alongside K-Man trying to close a trade deal with me while smelling like warm milk and wearing a Frozen sweater. I'm beginning to feel confident that Logz will miss the playoffs. There are still some strong pieces here to build around, like Travis Etienne, Nico Collins, and Davante Adams. That said, some of these picks (like Jacory Croskey-Merritt) scream, "I listen to a bunch of 'expert' fantasy football podcasts, and this is who they told me to draft!" Drake London is just having a slow start, but the rest don't inspire much confidence.

Name	Team	Depth
Dak Prescott	DAL-QB	1
Jacory Croskey-Merritt	WAS-RB	1
Travis Etienne	JAX-RB	1
Nico Collins	HOU-WR	1
Drake London	ATL-WR	1
Travis Kelce	KC-TE	1
Davante Adams	LAR-WR	2
Stefon Diggs	NE-WR	1
Washington Commanders	WAS-DEF

Henrything is Possible | 1-2W/L | 249PF

Week Three Points: 85.64

Mandrews 😭 Was it me?

It's incredible that this team has had significant luck (i.e., $Δw$ of 15%) but is still at the bottom of the standings. This team should absolutely be 0-3, given that John has yet to break 90 points in a week. On paper, this team should be better due to its strong core, excluding a washed Mahomes homer pick and horrific flex spots. It also feels like John is playing Whac-A-Mole with poor sit/start choices. This team has the potential to trend up to the 90s or low 100s, so John shouldn't buy Juggalo face paint just yet.

Name	Team	Depth
Patrick Mahomes	KC-QB	1
Derrick Henry	BAL-RB	1
Jordan Mason	MIN-RB	1
A.J. Brown	PHI-WR	1
Tyreek Hill	MIA-WR	1
Zach Ertz	WAS-TE	1
Jerry Jeudy	CLE-WR	1
Troy Franklin	DEN-WR	3
Baltimore Ravens	BAL-DEF